Macroeconomic Outlook 2021: In 2021: It Was A Very Good Year ...
So said Frank Sinatra, but do our experts agree that 2021 and beyond will be “good years”? In this 2021 outlook we discuss our macroeconomic forecasts and investment outlooks for the coming year.
Following an unparalleled 12 months, we enter 2021 with some light at the end of the tunnel. The arrival of vaccines will hopefully mean a swift reopening of economies, and a potential broad-based cyclical rally in risk assets. But the global economic rebound is unlikely to arrive prior to the second half of the year. Overall, we believe an end to the pandemic and ongoing policy support will contribute to a brighter future. Our 2021 Macroeconomic Outlook assesses what a post-coronavirus, ‘new-normal’ world will look like - and outlines the possible investment implications.
Click on the below links to read the executive summary:
Investment Outlook 2021 - A brighter future is possible
Normalising virus conditions, official policies and the natural economy will shape the 2021-2022 outlook
Asia will see a policy direction disparity as countries pursue different recovery paths
Uncertainty will persist into 2021, over a winter virus outbreak, policy gridlock after the US election and the roll-out of a vaccine
Global trade recovery and vaccine to allow slow policy normalisation
Asian Rates & FX
Asian currencies’ strength may continue on the back of relatively higher rates and better recovery expectations
Macro and valuation remain supportive for Asian fixed income, with greater credit differentiations expected in 2021
Bright year to expect as the export-dependent region is set to benefit from global recovery of any degree while it levels up its game in free trade